Appendix C: Risk and opportunity matrix
See the risk and opportunity matrix below. The underlying spreadsheet is also available as a download.
Notes on using the matrix:
This matrix summarizes the major design changes and unresolved decisions discussed throughout this guide. It is intended as a quick advocacy reference, not a substitute for the fuller analysis in the body of the report.
The decision deadline identifies the point by which advocates should generally seek to influence the issue. In many cases, Census has not announced a formal deadline. The relevant date is therefore the point when requirements, testing, procurements, or system development are likely to make significant changes increasingly difficult.
The matrix is designed to help advocates prioritize rather than to suggest that every issue carries the same level or type of risk.
A useful first step is to identify which decisions have the combination of:
high potential consequences for historically undercounted communities;
weak or incomplete evidence;
limited public transparency; and
an approaching operational lock-in point.
Those issues deserve the earliest attention.
The matrix should also be updated as the census design changes. A concern that is speculative today may become less important after successful testing. A promising innovation may reveal new weaknesses. A broad policy commitment may become either more protective or more concerning once Census publishes the rule that implements it.
For that reason, the most useful version of this appendix would remain a living risk and opportunity matrix through 2030, with each row updated as research is completed, decisions are made, and advocacy windows close.
The Matrix
Select any change to open its full record: the current plan, the potential benefit, the risk to historically undercounted groups, the worst-case scenario, the priority research need, and the advocacy ask.